One Poll Shows the State of the 2016 Election

May 6th 2016

Kyle Jaeger

A lot of people are going to be voting for either Democratic presidential candidate former Secretay of State Hillary Clinton or GOP presumptive nominee Donald Trump for a simple — one might say troubling — reason: They want to prevent the other side from winning, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.


Nearly half of Clinton and Trump supporters (47 and 46 percent, respectively) say that their primary motivation for voting for one candidate over another is because they don't want to see the opponent win — not because they necessarily endorse their candidate's political policies.


In the 2016 election, Trump and Clinton have seen historically high unfavorability ratings.


Clinton, who is the likeliest Democratic presidential nominee, and Trump, who became the presumptive Republican nominee after winning the Indiana primary on Tuesday, would be the most disliked nominees in the past 10 presidential cycles, if they both go on to compete in the general election, FiveThirtyEight reports.

From FiveThirtyEight:

"Clinton’s average 'strongly unfavorable' rating in probability sample polls from late March to late April, 37 percent, is about 5 percentage points higher than the previous high between 1980 and 2012... Trump’s average 'strongly unfavorable' rating, 53 percent, is 20 percentage points higher than every candidate’s rating besides Clinton’s."

You can look at these stats and reasonably conclude that they serve as evidence of the "deepening ideological divide in the United States," as Reuters reports. But there are likely other factors at play, based on the fact that their "favorability" ratings are also significantly low, which wouldn't make sense if their unfavorability was just the product of political polarization.


By comparison, about 43 percent of Clinton supporters and 40 percent of Trump supporters say they'll vote for their respective candidate because they agree with their political positions, according to the Reuters poll. But there's still time to boost those numbers.

"To be sure, voters’ opinions could change over the next several months," Reuters reports. "Candidates will be feted at party conventions, will square off in a series of national debates, and will be targeted by millions of dollars worth of advertisements."

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted between April 29 and May 5 and included 469 likely Trump voters and 599 likely Clinton voters. According to Reuters, the poll has a "credibility interval" of five percentage points.

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