Politics

Here's Who Gamblers Say Will Be Our Next Vice President

Political polling is accused of being historically inaccurate, and recent polls show no sign of rescinding this claim. Pollsters predicted ahead of Michigan's Democratic primary that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would coast to an easy win. She didn't, instead she lost in a huge upset to rival Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont).

Similarly, 13 different polls showed Donald Trump coming out victorious in Iowa's primary; in reality, he lost to Republican presidential hopeful Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

As the election inches closer and we wonder who the main candidates will pick as his or her running mate, how do we predict the future potential vice president of the United States?

Pollsters are already jumping on this one. Last month, a Morning Consult poll predicted that neurosurgeon and former Republican Party presidential candidate Ben Carson would be Trump's running mate. Carson did endorse the Republican candidate, however there's no plan for a Trump-Carson ticket just yet, as Slate points out. In fact, he might not even want the job, Reuters reports.

Polling questions centering on the VP choice are likely to heat up, since the unpopularity of both leading candidates this election cycle makes the VP pick all the more important to wooing voters in November.

For those who don't want to place their faith in political polls, however, there's an alternative choice: Online betting markets.

Can gamblers actually tell me who the VP will be?

According to political pundit John Stossel, betting markets can be surprisingly accurate, even "the most accurate source of election odds." As ATTN: has reported previously, online betting predicted President Barak Obama's 2008 election win, as well as his successful reelection in 2012.

At time of press PredictIt, which bills itself as a real-money stock market for politics, is setting its sights on housing and urban development secretary Julian Castro to receive the VP nod from the Democratic party. Runners up include labor secretary Tom Perez, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

Democratic VP picks at time of press.

On the Republican side, current presidential contender Gov. John Kasich is favored to win the party's VP nomination by PredictIt gamblers. The Ohio governor is followed by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.

Republican VP picks at time of press.

The margins are still fairly slim on both sides, however. And as FiveThirtyEight reminds us, it's usually best to shrug off all polls until just before a given primary or after the conventions for the general election. Do the rules that they propose apply to betting markets, too? Only time will tell, once we see the outcome of the VP race.

FiveThirtyEight's handbook for polls.

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