This Map Should Scare the Hell out of Donald Trump

April 1st 2016

Danielle DeCourcey

Presidential elections are notoriously hard to predict, but researchers at university with an ironclad reputation have laid out some projections that should terrify Republican hopeful Donald Trump.

Sabato's Crystal Ball — a research blog run by The University of Virginia's Center for Politics — presented its electoral college prediction map Thursday, which shows Trump getting thrashed by Democrat Hillary Clinton in the general election. The map gives Clinton 247 electoral college votes and Trump only 206.

Larry Sabato's Electoral College Map

Not only does this projection show Trump getting creamed in the general election, it shows him losing in eerily similar fashion to Republican candidate John McCain (R-AZ) who suffered a historic defeat at the hands of Barack Obama.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics 2008 map

You can see the accuracy of the center's predictions in this map by The New York Times of the 2008 election night results, which came within one vote of a perfect electoral college prediction.

NYT Election Map


Here's how the Crystal Ball celebrated their success in 2008:

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain.

The researchers stressed that the 2016 map is a "ridiculously premature projection," considering there are still seven months left before the election and there are some lingering questions about the nominees. ATTN: previously reported about a movement inside the Republican Party to block Trump from the nomination.


The researchers on the Crystal Ball blog said that it's “crystal clear" (get it?) that Clinton will be the Democratic candidate in the general election, but it's less clear for Trump. However the map operates under the assertion that because Trump is the leader, he will probably be the Republican nominee.

There's still a long way to go in this election but these predictions are certainly something to think about.

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