Politics

Nevada, South Carolina, and the Nomination: Where the Online Gamblers Stand

February 20th 2016

By:
Alex Mierjeski

The coming days will be important indicators for the 2016 presidential election. In Nevada, Democrats and Republicans will turn out to caucus on Saturday and Tuesday respectively; Republicans in South Carolina will vote in their state's primary this Saturday, with Democrats turning out one week after that (February 27).


via giphy.com

Polling averages are mostly consistent with recent trends and predicted outcomes: Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is expected to win in South Carolina and Nevada; and Democratic favorite former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is projected to win in both states as well — if by a very slim margin in Nevada.

South Carolina.

polling averages

polling averages

Nevada

polling averages

polling averages

As part of ATTN:'s ongoing coverage of the run up to the general election, here's a look at where the candidates' chances stand in online betting markets — which provide slightly different indicators of political favorability and elections predictors than traditional polling.

WHERE DO THE POLITICAL GAMBLERS STAND IN SOUTH CAROLINA?

According to Elections Betting Odds, a bet-tracking site that culls data from the online gambling site Betfair.com, the projected outcomes more or less match the polling averages. As of Friday afternoon, Clinton has a 97.3 percent chance to Sanders' 3.8 percent, and Trump has an 89.2 percent chance over fellow contenders Ted Cruz (5.2 percent), Marco Rubio (5 percent), Ben Carson (0.2 percent), John Kasich (0.2 percent), and Jeb Bush (0.1 percent).

Election betting

And in Nevada?

Trump and Clinton also lead in Nevada, according to Betfair.com data.

Nevada Republican caucus

Nevada Democratic caucus

Why look at online betting?

As ATTN: noted in the run up to the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, betting markets offer a different metric for estimating voting outcomes that has arguably more gravitas than, say, checking a box: cold, hard cash. Both gambling and traditional polling is speculation; gamblers, like polling, predicted Trump would win Iowa when, in reality the vote went to Ted Cruz. But as Election Betting Odds explains, betting markets take into account important factors besides existing polling (cash, for one thing, but also insider talk that precedes news breaks, and the "wisdom of the crowds" argument that is what it sounds like). And those factors could provide a different insight into which candidate ultimately gets the nomination and becomes president:

General election