Politics

Where Do the Political Gamblers Stand on the New Hampshire Primary?

On Tuesday, New Hampshire voters will submit their presidential pick in the primary, the second major electoral event since the Iowa caucus. According to the polls, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders have the advantage in the Granite State.

The latest poll, released by the University of Massachusetts, shows Trump with a 21-point lead over Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Sanders has a similarly comfortable, 16-point lead over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Where do the political gamblers stand?

Polls aside, election betting is another popular indicator of how candidates are faring with voters in the presidential election. Political gamblers appear to agree that Sanders has this primary locked down, but for Republicans, they seem less confident about Rubio's prospects.

New Hampshire

Election Betting Odds, a bet-tracking site run by Fox News journalists Maxim Lott and John Stossel using Betfair.com data, offers a fairly definitive look at primary chances in New Hampshire. As of Monday afternoon, Sanders has a 96.2 percent chance of winning in the state; Trump has an 85.3 percent chance.

The biggest discrepancy between the predictions of the pollsters and gamblers is the candidate they place second in the Republican field. While polls are torn between Rubio and Cruz as the likely second-place winner, Election Betting Odds has Ohio Gov. John Kasich as the prospective runner-up.

Polls

Unlike traditional polling — which is the most common way to determine election odds but is also notoriously inaccurate — political gambling uses a different kind of metric: money. It is by no means a foolproof system (it's still speculation after all), but the difference can produce some interesting results. It's worth noting that the last set of predictions from Election Betting Odds got the Republican bet wrong. They predicted Trump would win Iowa, but the ticket went to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

In this primary, election betters appear assured: Sanders and Trump will take New Hampshire. For the rest of us, we'll just have to wait and see.

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