Politics

Donald Trump Might Be in Deep Sh*t

February 2nd 2016

By:
Alex Mierjeski

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz scored a win in Iowa on Monday night, followed closely by Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio.

CNN republican returns on Iowa Caucus

By all indications (gamblers, pundits), Republican frontrunner Donald Trump had tonight's Iowa Republican caucus in the bag. But Trump's loss in Iowa is not the only indication that his presidential campaign might be in deeper trouble.

Though he consistently (and loudly) led the polls in the run up to Monday's vote, Trump's favorability rating overall remains pretty low.

As FiveThrityEight explains, Trump is not a favorite among Republican voters. But because the field was so crowded in Iowa, with 12 candidates pulling for votes, Trump's narrow sect of devotees had a chance to propel him to victory in the Hawkeye state. But with Cruz's win, Trump's favorability ratings stand out even more starkly. Per FiveThirtyEight:

"His favorable rating, 50 percent, is nearly matched by his unfavorable rating, 47 percent. He is far more unpopular than Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio."

Those ratings could spell trouble for Trump's performance in other early states. A recent Pew poll also found the divisive candidate to be the most unfavorable candidate across both parties in the race — the lowest rated candidate in either party in 25 years.

Trump had a strong chance to win Iowa, largely because of a broad field of contenders. But with a narrower field after Iowa — former Arkansas Gov Mike Huckabee already announced he was suspending his campaign — Trump stands a slimmer chance.

And even in Iowa, where Trump had slim leads ahead of fellow contenders Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in the days before the vote, the candidate was still an unfavorable pick: about 37 percent of Iowa Republicans in the most recent Des Moines Register poll said they would not be OK with a Trump nomination.

Only 7 percent of Iowa Republicans listed Trump as their second choice.

Despite his loss, Trump is planning on pushing on to New Hampshire. He zeroed in on the potential Democratic nominee in a quick speech on Monday night after the votes were tallied.

"Thank you very much, I love you people I love you people," Trump said in front of a crowd.

"I'm just honored. I'm really honored," he added. "I think I might come here and buy a farm."